Wisconsin Ag Connection - Last Crop Forecast Shows Wisconsin Soybeans, Corn Down

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Last Crop Forecast Shows Wisconsin Soybeans, Corn Down
Wisconsin Ag Connection - 10/18/2012

The USDA has made a few adjustments to Wisconsin's crop production estimates for the 2012 growing year. According to the agency's October Crop Production report, the state's corn yield is forecast at 127 bushels per acre, down three bushels from last month. Total production is expected to be 438 million bushels, down 15 percent from 2011. Wisconsin's corn objective yield survey showed there was an average of 27,300 ears per acre this year, 1,350 less than last year at this time. As of September 30, corn was rated 38 percent poor to very poor by Wisconsin Crop Progress reporters. About 81 percent of the crop was mature, 27 percentage points above the five-year average. Harvest was at 23 percent corn acres to be harvested for grain.

Nationally, corn production is forecast at 10.7 billion bushels, down less than one percent from the September forecast and 13 percent below 2011 final production. Corn objective yield data indicates the lowest ears per acre since 2005 for the 10 objective yield states combined. Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average 122.0 bushels per acre, down 0.8 bushels from the September forecast and 25.2 bushels below last year. If realized, this will be the lowest average yield in the United States since 1995. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 87.7 million acres, up less than one percent from the September forecast. Acreage updates were made in several states based on administrative data.

State soybean yields are around 39 bushels per acre, up three bushels from last month, but 7.5 bushels lower than 2011. Production is expected to be 66.3 million bushels, 11 percent below last year. Wisconsin's soybean acres were raised this month based on administrative data. Acres to be harvested for soybeans are estimated at 1.70 million acres. As of September 30, 25 percent of Wisconsin soybeans were rated in poor to very poor condition. Soybeans dropping leaves were 14 percentage points ahead of average, and harvest was at 42 percent.

U.S. soybean production is forecast at 2.86 billion bushels, up nine percent from September, but down eight percent from last year. Yields are expected to average 37.8 bushels per acre, up 2.5 bushels from last month but down 4.1 bushels from last year. Compared with last month, yield forecasts are higher or unchanged across all states. Area for harvest is forecast at 75.7 million acres, up one percent from September and up three percent from 2011.

Wisconsin's alfalfa hay harvest is expected to be 2.2 million tons, 32 percent below last year. Yield is forecast at 2.20 tons per acre, 0.6 ton lower than last year. Acres harvested are expected to be one million--which is 150,000 fewer than last year. U.S. alfalfa production is forecast at 55.6 million tons, 15 percent below 2011.

State production numbers for other types of hay is forecast at 850,000 tons, one percent below last year. Five hundred thousand acres are expected to be harvested, with an average yield of 1.70 tons per acre. Nationally, other hay production is forecast at 66.4 million tons, one percent above last year.

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