By Jamie Martin
According to a new report from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange, fertilizer markets are expected to remain under pressure through 2028 as global supply disruptions and production challenges continue affecting nutrient availability.
Although fertilizer prices have declined from earlier peaks, they are still projected to stay above historic levels. Ongoing uncertainty in international markets, along with tight supplies of key raw materials, is expected to support higher prices for several more years.
The global fertilizer industry relies heavily on major exporting regions for products such as urea, sulfur, ammonia, and phosphate. Supply disruptions in these regions have increased costs and created challenges for both retailers and farmers.
“The ripple effect of the Middle East conflict, compounded with tight supplies, will create higher fertilizer prices and complicate sourcing well into 2027 and beyond,” said Jacqui Fatka, farm supply and biofuels economist with CoBank.
She added, “Availability and affordability concerns have already triggered demand destruction and deferral, making the price outlook increasingly difficult to predict. Ultimately, market recovery will depend on stabilization in the Middle East, lower sulfur prices and shifts in global demand patterns.”
Phosphate fertilizers remain a key concern. Limited availability of important production inputs, combined with export restrictions and strong demand, has tightened supplies across global markets. These conditions are expected to keep phosphate prices elevated.
Production challenges have also emerged in several countries due to plant closures, reduced output, and infrastructure disruptions. As a result, agricultural supply chains have become more complex, increasing the difficulty of securing fertilizer products at affordable prices.
Farmers are responding by focusing on nutrient efficiency. Many producers are expanding the use of precision agriculture tools, soil testing programs, and targeted fertilizer applications to maintain crop productivity while managing costs.
Rather than eliminating fertilizer use, growers are carefully balancing nutrient programs to protect yields. Industry experts note that prolonged reductions in nutrient applications could eventually affect soil health and crop performance.
Higher fertilizer costs may also influence purchasing decisions and application schedules. Some growers could delay applications, creating added pressure on retailers during critical planting periods.
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Categories: National