By Jamie Martin
The outlook for producing jet fuel from U.S. corn ethanol, known as alcohol-to-jet (ATJ), is increasingly uncertain. The biofuels sector faces challenges as on-road ethanol demand drops with more electric vehicles and declining gasoline use. In 2024, U.S. ethanol production hit a record 16.2 billion gallons, mostly from corn.
Finding new markets is difficult. Analysts from S&P Global Commodity Insights expect ethanol exports to decline in 2025. A major barrier is the lack of Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) pathways for making jet fuel from corn ethanol.
Currently, most Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) generates about 1.6 biomass-based diesel (D4) RINs per gallon, adding $1.68 in value based on April 2025 prices. However, corn ethanol lacks an approved RFS pathway.
EPA approvals are pending but complex, especially since corn-based ATJ must show a 50% reduction in greenhouse gases compared to 2005 petroleum baselines.
LanzaJet remains the only U.S. commercial ATJ facility operator, making SAF from Brazilian sugarcane ethanol. The company's approval is specific to its Georgia plant. “Soils have been a passion of mine, and I love to share it with others,” said Brandon Hall.
The math behind the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit is another hurdle. Corn ethanol used for SAF misses out on valuable RINs and creates pricing challenges compared to petroleum jet fuel.
Early 2025 data show slow SAF production, under 30 million gallons in the first quarter. The Farmers First Fuel Incentive Act could help, by supporting US-grown feedstocks for 45Z credits.
While U.S. ethanol producers are eager to pivot to SAF and support national energy goals, clear pathways and supportive policies are urgently needed.
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Categories: National