By Jamie Martin
The USDA’s latest cattle inventory report indicates another year of contraction for the beef industry. As of January 1, 2025, total cattle numbers declined to 86.66 million head, reflecting a 0.6% drop from the previous year. The industry has now lost 8 million head since its 2019 peak.
State-specific data shows that while Mississippi’s inventory remained stable at 810,000 head, states like Arkansas and Kentucky reported declines of 0.6% and 2.1%, respectively.
North Carolina experienced the most significant decrease in the Southeast at 4.0%, while Texas, Alabama, and Florida maintained or slightly increased their herd numbers.
Beef cow inventories also dropped, with numbers falling to 28.86 million head, a 0.5% decline. Despite this, beef production efficiency continues to improve.
The average beef yield per cow has risen by 45 pounds since 2019 and 72 pounds since 2014, underscoring industry resilience amid declining herd sizes.
USDA’s annual inventory revisions continue to present forecasting challenges. Analysts initially expected a 1% drop in beef cow numbers, but a downward revision of the 2024 estimates resulted in only a 0.5% decline. “Forecasting, in this context, is akin to trying to hit a moving target,” the report stated.
Historical data shows that the most significant adjustment occurred in 2014, when USDA increased the inventory by 796,000 head. Over the past two decades, downward revisions have been more common, particularly in beef cow estimates.
Despite the contraction in herd sizes, the overall industry outlook remains steady, supported by efficiency improvements and consistent demand for beef production.
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Categories: National